What are the current odds for "Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $440.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.1% or No shares at 100.0%. The market has $212.6K in liquidity.

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Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?

Updated 3 months ago

This market resolves Yes only if the U.S. government makes an explicit, on-the-record public claim that Iran was responsible for the March 7, 2026 attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo by March 31. Markets currently give this outcome a 0% probability.

Current Probability

0.1%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2000.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.00 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.

Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.

The primary resolution source will be official government statements.

Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.