What are the current odds for "Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 6.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $149.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 6.1% or No shares at 93.9%. The market has $24.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Updated 3 weeks ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 6.1% on Polymarket, with $149,059 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

6.1%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$16.39 return per $1

If No wins

$1.06 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.