What are the current odds for "Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $333.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.5% or No shares at 95.5%. The market has $18.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 6 days (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?

Updated Today

Direct US cyberattacks on Iran remain a live geopolitical risk, with prediction markets assigning a 21% probability such an operation occurs before April 2026. Escalating tensions over nuclear negotiations and regional proxy conflicts keep this scenario credible despite its relative rarity.

Current Probability

4.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$22.22 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1