What are the current odds for "Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 26.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $31.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 26.0% or No shares at 74.0%. The market has $2.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

Updated 3 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 26.0% on Polymarket, with $31,099 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

26.0%+0.10%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.85 return per $1

If No wins

$1.35 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.

Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.

The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.

Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.