What are the current odds for "Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?"?

As of April 2026, prediction markets give this a 83.8% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $285.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 83.8% or No shares at 16.2%. The market has $20.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 weeks (Apr 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?

Updated Today

Iran-Israel military tensions remain at the forefront of geopolitical risk, with markets giving a 53% chance of Iranian military action by April 30, 2026. Recent escalations in the region have made this one of the most closely-watched conflict prediction markets, affecting oil prices and regional stability.

Current Probability

83.8%+0.03%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.19 return per $1

If No wins

$6.15 return per $1