What are the current odds for "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.4% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.19M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.4% or No shares at 99.6%. The market has $15.4K in liquidity.

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Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

Updated Today

Nuclear weapons testing remains banned under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, making any detonation a geopolitical flashpoint with massive implications for international relations and arms control. Prediction markets give Russia a 1% chance of conducting a test by March 2026, pricing in the extreme diplomatic and economic costs such an action would trigger.

Current Probability

0.4%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$222.22 return per $1

If No wins

$1.00 return per $1