What are the current odds for "Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 1.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.49M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 1.1% or No shares at 98.9%. The market has $15.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?

Updated Today

Direct military conflict between Russia and NATO would mark a historic escalation with global consequences. Markets currently give this just a 2% chance by March 2026, reflecting assessments that both sides have strong incentives to avoid direct confrontation despite ongoing tensions.

Current Probability

1.1%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$90.91 return per $1

If No wins

$1.01 return per $1