What are the current odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?"?

As of April 2026, prediction markets give this a 7.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $185.7K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 7.0% or No shares at 93.0%. The market has $89.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 months (May 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Updated Today

Russia and Ukraine face a May 31, 2026 deadline for ceasefire negotiations, but markets assign just 6% probability to a deal materializing. The near-zero consensus reflects widespread skepticism about diplomatic breakthroughs amid ongoing conflict, with only modest tail-risk pricing for unexpected negotiations.

Current Probability

7.0%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$14.39 return per $1

If No wins

$1.07 return per $1