What are the current odds for "Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 16.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $56.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 16.5% or No shares at 83.5%. The market has $19.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?

Updated 3 days ago

Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip). Currently 16.5% on Polymarket, with $56,458 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

16.5%+0.06%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.06 return per $1

If No wins

$1.20 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms More political markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively. Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count.

Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count.

AI-generated images or video will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.

View full rules