What are the current odds for "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 43.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $370.5K in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 weeks (Apr 15, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Q: Where can I trade on "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 43.0% or No shares at 57.0%. The market has $27.1K in liquidity.

Updated Today

In one of the most-watched geopolitical markets, prediction markets give Trump a 31% chance of announcing an end to military operations against Iran by April 15, 2026. This relatively low probability reflects market skepticism about rapid diplomatic resolution amid ongoing regional tensions. The $111K volume reflects high interest in U.S.-Iran policy outcomes.

Current Probability

43.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.33 return per $1

If No wins

$1.75 return per $1