What are the current odds for "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 5.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $154.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 5.5% or No shares at 94.5%. The market has $29.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Updated 3 hr ago

This market resolves Yes if the U.S. government announces or confirms the reopening/opening of an embassy or consulate in Iran by December 31, 2026. Markets currently assign this a 6% chance.

Current Probability

5.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$18.18 return per $1

If No wins

$1.06 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.