What are the current odds for "Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.4% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $840.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.4% or No shares at 99.6%. The market has $60.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 days (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

Updated Today

Hezbollah's potential disarmament would represent a seismic shift in Lebanese politics and Middle Eastern regional balance. Markets assign just 4% probability to the militant group laying down arms by March 31st, given its deep entrenchment in Lebanese governance and society.

Current Probability

0.4%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$222.22 return per $1

If No wins

$1.00 return per $1