What are the current odds for "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 6.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $229.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 6.5% or No shares at 93.5%. The market has $29.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Updated Today

The Israel-Hezbollah conflict remains active as of early 2026, with ceasefire negotiations ongoing through March 31. Markets currently give a ceasefire agreement only a 12% chance, reflecting deep skepticism about near-term diplomatic breakthroughs.

Current Probability

6.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$15.38 return per $1

If No wins

$1.07 return per $1