What are the current odds for "Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.3% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $138.7K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.3% or No shares at 95.7%. The market has $13.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve Ended (Dec 31, 2025). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Updated Today

NATO faces unprecedented strain heading into mid-2026, with markets giving a 2% chance any member formally departs by June 30. Such a withdrawal would fundamentally alter Europe's security architecture for the first time in the alliance's history.

Current Probability

4.3%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$22.99 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1