What are the current odds for "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 7.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $263.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 7.0% or No shares at 93.0%. The market has $16.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve Ended (Feb 28, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?

Updated Today

Geopolitical tensions keep the possibility of a Baghdad Embassy evacuation on traders' minds through March 31, 2026, though markets give it only a 12% chance. Any such withdrawal would signal a dramatic escalation in regional instability affecting U.S. diplomatic operations.

Current Probability

7.0%-0.06%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$14.29 return per $1

If No wins

$1.08 return per $1