What are the current odds for "Kurds declare independence from Iran?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 14.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $108.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Kurds declare independence from Iran?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 14.0% or No shares at 86.0%. The market has $15.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Kurds declare independence from Iran?

Updated Today

Kurdish independence movements have resurged across Iraq, Syria, and Turkey in recent years, though Iran's Kurdish regions remain politically fragmented. A formal Kurdish declaration of independence from Iran by June 30, 2026 carries a 20% probability—higher than many other geopolitical outcomes but still unlikely given Tehran's military capacity.

Current Probability

14.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$7.14 return per $1

If No wins

$1.16 return per $1