What are the current odds for "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 1.8% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $162.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 1.8% or No shares at 98.3%. The market has $48.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 months (Apr 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Updated Today

Military escalation between the US and Iran remains a tail-risk scenario through April 30, 2026, with markets pricing just 3% odds of an official war declaration. Geopolitical tensions persist, but diplomatic channels and economic incentives currently outweigh conflict risks.

Current Probability

1.8%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$57.14 return per $1

If No wins

$1.02 return per $1