What are the current odds for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?"?

As of April 2026, prediction markets give this a 6.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.06M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 6.5% or No shares at 93.5%. The market has $160.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Apr 15, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Updated Today

Iranian control of Kharg Island—a critical Persian Gulf oil export hub—remains highly stable according to prediction markets, which give only an 11% chance of a change in control by April 15, 2026. Any shift would carry major implications for regional security and global energy supplies.

Current Probability

6.5%-0.03%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$15.38 return per $1

If No wins

$1.07 return per $1