What are the current odds for "Iran nuclear test before 2027?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 12.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $120.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Iran nuclear test before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 12.5% or No shares at 87.5%. The market has $15.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Updated Today

An Iranian nuclear weapons test before 2027 carries 13% odds in prediction markets, reflecting ongoing diplomatic and technical barriers despite international tensions and sanctions pressure. The threshold for such a test remains high despite regional instability.

Current Probability

12.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$8.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.14 return per $1