What are the current odds for "X banned in any European country by December 31?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 27.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $12.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "X banned in any European country by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 27.0% or No shares at 73.0%. The market has $2.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

X banned in any European country by December 31?

Updated 3 weeks ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 27.0% on Polymarket, with $12,215 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

27.0%-0.04%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.70 return per $1

If No wins

$1.37 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.

A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Listed on Polymarket Mar 30, 2026 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026