What are the current odds for "Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?"?

As of April 2026, prediction markets give this a 1.7% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $190.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 1.7% or No shares at 98.4%. The market has $172.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 4 weeks (Apr 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?

Updated Today

A U.S. withdrawal from NATO by April 30, 2026, trades at just 1% probability, reflecting deep institutional and alliance commitments despite political rhetoric. Such an outcome would represent an unprecedented geopolitical rupture reshaping global security architecture.

Current Probability

1.7%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$60.61 return per $1

If No wins

$1.02 return per $1