What are the current odds for "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 8.9% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $144.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 8.9% or No shares at 91.0%. The market has $23.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Updated Today

One of the most-watched geopolitical markets tracks whether the US withdraws from NATO before 2027, currently priced at just 7% probability. Despite periodic rhetoric about alliance costs, traders heavily discount the likelihood of formal withdrawal given NATO's strategic importance to US defense architecture.

Current Probability

8.9%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$11.17 return per $1

If No wins

$1.10 return per $1