What are the current odds for "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 31.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $178.3K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 31.0% or No shares at 69.0%. The market has $2.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve Ended (Jan 10, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?

Updated Today

U.S. unemployment could spike to 5.5% or higher in 2026—markets currently give this outcome a 39% probability as the year unfolds. This threshold matters because it would signal meaningful economic slowdown and potentially trigger changes in Federal Reserve policy.

Current Probability

31.0%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.23 return per $1

If No wins

$1.45 return per $1