What are the current odds for "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 60.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $58.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 60.0% or No shares at 40.0%. The market has $7.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve Ended (Jan 10, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

Updated Today

U.S. unemployment has remained historically low, but recessions and policy shifts could push it higher in 2026. Markets give a 57% chance unemployment reaches at least 5.0% by January 10, 2026, reflecting near-even odds of economic softening in the coming weeks.

Current Probability

60.0%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.67 return per $1

If No wins

$2.50 return per $1