What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $297.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.1% or No shares at 99.9%. The market has $12.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve Tomorrow (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

Updated Today

The U.S. has observed a nuclear testing moratorium since 1992 as part of broader non-proliferation efforts, though it never ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Markets assign just a 1% probability to an American nuclear test by March 2026, reflecting the extreme political and diplomatic barriers to resuming such activity.

Current Probability

0.1%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$666.67 return per $1

If No wins

$1.00 return per $1