What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 22.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.19M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 22.5% or No shares at 77.5%. The market has $110.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Updated Today

U.S.-Cuba military relations remain fraught despite recent diplomatic thaws. Markets give military invasion just a 20% chance through 2026, balancing genuine geopolitical risks against the high political and military costs such action would entail.

Current Probability

22.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.44 return per $1

If No wins

$1.29 return per $1

Price History