What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 12.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $3.07M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 12.5% or No shares at 87.5%. The market has $95.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Updated 1 hr ago

Markets assign a 19% probability that the United States will launch a military offensive to establish control over Cuban territory by December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on whether an invasion intended to seize land occurs.

Current Probability

12.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$8.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.14 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Price History