What are the current odds for "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.8% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $651.3K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.8% or No shares at 99.3%. The market has $114.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?

Updated Today

Despite decades of UFO sightings and congressional hearings, markets currently give formal US alien confirmation by March 31, 2026 just a 1% chance. Government disclosure would require official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial life—a threshold far beyond leaked reports or recovered materials.

Current Probability

0.8%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$133.33 return per $1

If No wins

$1.01 return per $1