What are the current odds for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 78.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $95.6K in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 6 months (Oct 4, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Q: Where can I trade on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 78.5% or No shares at 21.5%. The market has $19.8K in liquidity.

Updated Today

Brazil's 2026 presidential election (scheduled for October) hinges on whether Lula can advance past the first round, and markets give him a 78% probability of qualifying for the runoff. At 80 years old, his ability to compete remains consequential for Latin America's largest economy.

Current Probability

78.5%-0.04%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.27 return per $1

If No wins

$4.65 return per $1