What are the current odds for "Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $263.3K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.1% or No shares at 99.9%. The market has $104.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 days (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?

Updated Today

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Gaza region keep military escalation risk top-of-mind for markets and international observers. Current odds assign just a 3% probability to Israeli military action on March 21, 2026, reflecting relative stability expectations despite underlying regional fragility.

Current Probability

0.1%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$666.67 return per $1

If No wins

$1.00 return per $1