What are the current odds for "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 16.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $81.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 16.0% or No shares at 84.0%. The market has $9.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Updated Today

Iran's nuclear program remains a global flashpoint, and markets currently give a 23% chance the country withdraws from the Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027. Such a withdrawal would signal escalating tensions and potentially remove constraints on nuclear development, with major implications for Middle Eastern stability and international diplomacy.

Current Probability

16.0%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.25 return per $1

If No wins

$1.19 return per $1

Price History