What are the current odds for "Will Frank Ocean release a new song in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 42.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $10.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Frank Ocean release a new song in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 42.5% or No shares at 57.5%. The market has $288 in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Frank Ocean release a new song in 2026?

Updated 3 months ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Currently 42.5% on Polymarket, with $10,506 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

42.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.35 return per $1

If No wins

$1.74 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances, recordings of live performances, or leaks) by the resolution date.

Live versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, or similar non-original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count.

If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the credits of the below-listed resolution sources (e.g., the song ‘girl, get up.’ counts as a new release for SZA as she is, equally to Doechii, labeled “Main Artist” in the Spotify credits to the song, regardless of feature indication in the title).

For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution.

The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.

Listed on Polymarket Nov 11, 2025 · Resolves Dec 31, 2026