What are the current odds for "Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 42.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 42.5% or No shares at 57.5%. The market has $6.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Apr 30, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

Updated 2 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Currently 42.5% on Polymarket, with $1,509 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

42.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.35 return per $1

If No wins

$1.74 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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