What are the current odds for "Will Alberta join the US? "?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 2.6% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $2.19M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Alberta join the US? "?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 2.6% or No shares at 97.4%. The market has $62.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will Alberta join the US?

Updated 7 min ago

This market resolves Yes if Alberta officially comes under United States sovereignty by December 31, 2026, either through announcement of an official agreement or actual transfer of governance. Markets currently give this outcome a 4% probability.

Current Probability

2.6%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$37.74 return per $1

If No wins

$1.03 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.

An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

Price History