What are the current odds for "US strike on Mexico by December 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 21.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $518.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US strike on Mexico by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 21.0% or No shares at 79.0%. The market has $48.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Updated Today

A U.S. military strike on Mexico would represent an unprecedented escalation in North American relations, yet markets assign it a 30% chance by year-end 2026. This reflects real concerns about cross-border security issues and potential policy shifts, though such an action would face enormous diplomatic and domestic obstacles.

Current Probability

21.0%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.76 return per $1

If No wins

$1.27 return per $1