What are the current odds for "US strike on Mexico by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 1.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.38M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US strike on Mexico by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 1.5% or No shares at 98.6%. The market has $47.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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US strike on Mexico by March 31?

Updated Today

A US military strike on Mexico would represent an extraordinary breakdown in North American relations and USMCA agreement. Markets price this scenario at just 3% probability through year-end, reflecting the extreme rarity of direct military action between neighboring trade partners.

Current Probability

1.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$68.97 return per $1

If No wins

$1.01 return per $1