What are the current odds for "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 19.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $436.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 19.5% or No shares at 80.5%. The market has $27.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

127,740

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,762,428,991

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$577,969,177

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$3,417,251,902

Polymarket$3.04BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$356.20MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$24.17MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

127,740

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,762,428,991

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$577,969,177

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$3,417,251,902

Polymarket$3.04BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$356.20MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$24.17MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Updated Today

In a significant geopolitical indicator, markets currently give just a 21% chance the US formally recognizes Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi as Iran's legitimate leader during 2026. Recognition would represent a major diplomatic shift with far-reaching implications for US-Iran relations.

Current Probability

19.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$5.13 return per $1

If No wins

$1.24 return per $1