What are the current odds for "Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 32.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $108.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 32.0% or No shares at 68.0%. The market has $12.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

Updated Today

With the Insurrection Act invocation question running through year-end 2026, markets currently price a 29% chance the president will invoke this rarely-used emergency power. Historically reserved for domestic emergencies, its invocation would signal severe constitutional crisis and signal dramatic government action.

Current Probability

32.0%-0.04%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.13 return per $1

If No wins

$1.47 return per $1