What are the current odds for "EU dissolves before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 2.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $176.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "EU dissolves before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 2.5% or No shares at 97.5%. The market has $37.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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EU dissolves before 2027?

Updated 5 min ago

The European Union would be considered dissolved if more than half its member states formally withdraw, or if member states jointly repeal the foundational EU treaties by December 31, 2026. Markets currently give this scenario a 3% probability.

Current Probability

2.5%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$40.82 return per $1

If No wins

$1.03 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.

2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.

EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History