What are the current odds for "ECB rate cut in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 18.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $27.3K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "ECB rate cut in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 18.0% or No shares at 82.0%. The market has $2.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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ECB rate cut in 2026?

Updated 2 months ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Currently 18.0% on Polymarket, with $27,279 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

18.0%-0.02%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$5.56 return per $1

If No wins

$1.22 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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