What are the current odds for "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $121.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.1% or No shares at 95.9%. The market has $29.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?

Updated Today

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October 2024, and markets assess whether she'll serve through June 30, 2026. Markets currently give 5% odds to her being out by that date, reflecting low removal probability despite Mexico's political volatility and security challenges. Impeachment or resignation remains unlikely but not impossible.

Current Probability

4.1%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$24.39 return per $1

If No wins

$1.04 return per $1

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Kalshi

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Outcome: Mexico

15.0%

$8.7K vol