Updated Today
The proposed Clarity Act—legislation aimed at clarifying cryptocurrency regulation—sits at 56% odds of becoming law by year's end 2026. Markets remain genuinely split on whether bipartisan support will materialize for this significant crypto policy measure.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$2.02 return per $1
If No wins
$1.98 return per $1
Price Changes
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
PM·$19.10M volWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?
PM·$12.12M volWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
PM·$5.82M volWill Iran strike Israel on March 10?
PM·$23.08M volLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A
PM·$5.83M volSpurs vs. Clippers
PM·$4.94M volLakers vs. Heat
PM·$4.82M volClippers vs. Pelicans
PM·$4.72M volUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
PM·$30.87M volLoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B
PM·$4.22M volWarriors vs. Celtics
PM·$3.52M volMagic vs. Hawks
PM·$3.48M vol
KalshiSAVE Act Becomes Law by Jan 4 2027
Outcome: Before Jan 4, 2027
KalshiOBBB Gambling Tax Removal 2026
Outcome: Before April 2026
KalshiGambling Tax OBBB Act 2026
Outcome: Before 2027
KalshiWill legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment become law before Apr 15, 2026?
Outcome: Before Apr 15, 2026
KalshiWill legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET on the later of (i) February 14, 2026 and (ii) the calendar day after enactment become law before Apr 8, 2026?
Outcome: Before Apr 8, 2026
KalshiWill legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions become law before Jan 1, 2027?
Outcome: Credit-card routing competition
