What are the current odds for "California voter ID referendum passes?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 54.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $8.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "California voter ID referendum passes?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 54.5% or No shares at 45.5%. The market has $1.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Nov 3, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

California voter ID referendum passes?

Updated 17 min ago

The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections. Currently 54.5% on Polymarket, with $8,350 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

54.5%+0.07%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.83 return per $1

If No wins

$2.20 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.

If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.

The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.