What are the current odds for "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 30.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $2.71M in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 7 months (Nov 3, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketpolitics

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Q: Where can I trade on "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 30.5% or No shares at 69.5%. The market has $162.0K in liquidity.

Updated Today

California voters will decide on a proposed wealth tax targeting billionaires in the 2026 midterms, a test case for progressive taxation nationwide. Markets currently give the measure a 31% chance of passing, split between support from left-leaning voters and business opposition.

Current Probability

30.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.28 return per $1

If No wins

$1.44 return per $1