What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 3.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $246.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 3.5% or No shares at 96.5%. The market has $135.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Updated 19 min ago

This market resolves Yes if the United States launches a military offensive to establish control over Mexican territory by year-end 2026. Currently priced at 3%, it tracks a contingency with significant geopolitical implications.

Current Probability

3.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$28.99 return per $1

If No wins

$1.04 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms Trending markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History