What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 7.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $97.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 7.5% or No shares at 92.5%. The market has $77.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Updated Today

A U.S. military invasion of Mexico remains extraordinarily unlikely, with prediction markets assigning just 9% probability through 2026. The scenario would require unprecedented geopolitical escalation, making this market more a gauge of tail-risk sentiment than a serious policy expectation.

Current Probability

7.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$13.33 return per $1

If No wins

$1.08 return per $1

Price History