What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 3.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $146.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 3.1% or No shares at 96.9%. The market has $31.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

Updated 2 hr ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 3.1% on Polymarket, with $146,014 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

3.1%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$32.26 return per $1

If No wins

$1.03 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.