What are the current odds for "Will the next elected US president be a woman?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 18.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $11.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the next elected US president be a woman?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 18.5% or No shares at 81.5%. The market has $7.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 years (Nov 7, 2028). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Updated 4 weeks ago

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. Currently 18.5% on Polymarket, with $11,624 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

18.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$5.41 return per $1

If No wins

$1.23 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.