What are the current odds for "Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 7.2% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $61.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 7.2% or No shares at 92.8%. The market has $14.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?

Updated Today

Tesla's long-promised Optimus humanoid robot faces significant delays, with markets giving only an 8% chance it ships by June 30, 2026. This robotaxi-adjacent technology could revolutionize manufacturing if delivered, but repeated timelines have eroded investor confidence.

Current Probability

7.2%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$13.79 return per $1

If No wins

$1.08 return per $1