What are the current odds for "Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 38.2% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $157.3K in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?

Q: Where can I trade on "Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 38.2% or No shares at 61.8%. The market has $15.5K in liquidity.

Updated Today

Escalating Middle East tensions have kept markets on edge regarding potential Iranian retaliation. Markets currently give Iran a 48% chance of conducting military action against Israel on the specific date of March 19, 2026—essentially even odds reflecting genuine geopolitical uncertainty.

Current Probability

38.2%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.62 return per $1

If No wins

$1.62 return per $1