Updated 25 min ago
Markets currently give a 67% chance that Mitch McConnell announces his intention to step down from the U.S. Senate before his term ends on January 3, 2027. Such an announcement would need to indicate he is leaving office prior to the scheduled end of his term, distinguishing it from reaffirmations of existing retirement plans.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$2.67 return per $1
If No wins
$1.60 return per $1
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
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