Updated Today
Kristi Noem's tenure as Trump's Cabinet secretary faces near-even odds (51%) of ending before the year closes on December 31, 2026. Cabinet turnover has been a defining feature of Trump administrations, making departures historically common.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$1.79 return per $1
If No wins
$2.27 return per $1
Price Changes
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
PM·$4.37M volSenators vs. Rangers
PM·$1.72M volSenators vs. Red Wings
PM·$1.00M volIslanders vs. Senators
PM·$988.1K volSenators vs. Capitals
PM·$795.3K volTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
PM·$3.81M volMaple Leafs vs. Senators
PM·$464.0K volTrump out as President by March 31?
PM·$11.44M volWill Trump visit China by April 30?
PM·$2.97M volTrump out as President by June 30?
PM·$1.10M volWill Trump visit China by March 31?
PM·$4.68M volKigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Marco Cecchinato
PM·$203.2K vol
KalshiTrump Leaves Office Before Aug 2026
Outcome: Before August 1, 2026
KalshiTrump Leaves Office Before 2028
Outcome: Before 2028
KalshiTrump Leave Office by Jan 2029
Outcome: Before January 20, 2029
KalshiTulsi Gabbard Leave Trump Cabinet
Outcome: Tulsi Gabbard
KalshiLori Chavez-DeRemer Trump Cabinet Exit
Outcome: Lori Chavez-DeRemer
KalshiWill Rubio Leave Trump Cabinet
Outcome: Marco Rubio
